Thursday, February 7, 2013

Hurricane and Tropical Storm And FIRE Predictors

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2013 season
Average (1981–2010)
Record high activity28158
Record low activity420
TSR[1]December 5, 20121583
Actual activity000
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

     Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.


     This year, we have predicted an average guess of 6-7 major storms anytime between June 1 and November 1, 2013.  As anyone in New York or New Jersey can now attest, they can hit anywhere along the coast from the entire eastern seaboard around Florida and up into any point along the Gulf of Mexico.  

     As Floridians, we go a little deeper and watch for tropical storms.  We know a tropical storm can bring us as much rain as a hurricane, and that water doesn't always drain off as fast as we would like it.  Twenty inches of rain is a hardship even if it doesn't come at 100 miles per hour.  This chart is a forecast for us from

Atlantic ACE Index and System Numbers in 2013
   ACE Intense Tropical   Index Hurricanes Hurricanes Storms
TSR Forecast (±FE) 2013  134 (±56) 3.4 (±1.6(INTENSE HURRICANES)) 7.7 (±2.9)(HURRICANES) 15.4 (±4.3)(TROPICAL STORMS)

     For anyone tuning in to this blog, this is not justification for going on about prepping.  This is a chance to share information with Floridians who didn't know what we are in for this year.  We have also had a very slight winter season.  We had no frost in Central Florida.  We had only some patchy frost North of us in the Ocala, Fl area.  
      We are already putting seedlings in the ground, watching the kumquats for ripening and wondering if this light winter will be followed by drought or fire.  We are well aware that nature is seasonal and cyclical.  Every twenty to twenty five years, we find ourselves in a drought that lets lightning start wildfires that bring in firefighters from as far away as Russia.  It has been awhile since we burned so, we are always praying for rain.
     You can find great wild fire information at:  This site has a map for counties with burn bans, counties in drought conditions, rainfall charts and current fires across the state.  They have great safety info and recommend for software downloads.
      We are in for another year of life as we know it until it changes.  This is a chance to get ready for change due to weather and weather related fires as well as conditions for the odd arsonist to ruin many lives.  It is awful but that happens.
       Be informed.  Be prepared and be there when it's over!   

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